United Airlines lowers Q4 profit guidance due to rising jet fuel costs

On October 21, 2026, United Airlines released its fourth-quarter business outlook, expecting adjusted earnings per share of $0.50 to $1.50 due to persistently high jet fuel costs, below analysts' expectation of $1.76. The company expects an average jet fuel price of $4.80 per gallon, about $0.45 above market consensus, a gap equivalent to about $1 per share. The upper end of the range implies United's 2026 adjusted earnings per share will not exceed $7.22. On the same day's earnings call, Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella said the company's Q3 business revenue grew 22% year over year, yields rose 15%, and contracted business revenue grew 26%; Q3 passenger revenue grew nearly 18% to more than $16.2 billion, total revenue grew more than 17% to about $17.9 billion, and net profit exceeded $1 billion; quarterly capacity grew 1.3% year over year, and average fuel cost was $3.90 per gallon. An October 22 report said United recovered 72% of incremental fuel costs through fares in Q3, up from about 50% in Q2 but below the 80% to 90% guidance given in summer; the company expects a similar recovery rate in Q4 and has abandoned its previous goal of recovering 100% of fuel cost increases by the end of 2026, with Chief Financial Officer Mike Leskinen saying he is confident about full recovery but there is a lag.