US BTS Preliminary Estimates Model Expands to Multiple Transport Metrics

The US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) began releasing preliminary estimates (PE) for monthly enplanements in early 2025. The model, which calculates correlations between early indicators and complete historical datasets, provides timely estimates 3-12 months ahead of final audited counts. Over the past year, BTS expanded this regression-based model to additional key transportation metrics: Transit Ridership, Amtrak Ridership, TransBorder Freight, and Vehicle Miles Traveled. Each metric uses lead indicators including TSA checkpoint data, Amtrak station-level figures, the Census Bureau FT900 report, FTA National Transit Database, and FHWA Traffic Volume Trends.