US BTS Preliminary Estimates Model Expands to Multiple Transport Metrics
The US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) began releasing preliminary estimates (PE) for monthly enplanements in early 2025. The model, which calculates correlations between early indicators and complete historical datasets, provides timely estimates 3-12 months ahead of final audited counts. Over the past year, BTS expanded this regression-based model to additional key transportation metrics: Transit Ridership, Amtrak Ridership, TransBorder Freight, and Vehicle Miles Traveled. Each metric uses lead indicators including TSA checkpoint data, Amtrak station-level figures, the Census Bureau FT900 report, FTA National Transit Database, and FHWA Traffic Volume Trends.
Impact and considerations
The model expansion means industry participants across aviation, rail, transit, and freight can access high-confidence traffic estimates 3-12 months earlier, supporting earlier capacity planning, demand forecasting, and resource allocation.
Key points
- BTS began releasing preliminary estimates for monthly enplanements in early 2025, providing estimates 3-12 months ahead of final audited counts.
- The PE model uses simple linear regression with seasonality controls, predicting based on correlations between early indicators and historical datasets.
- Aviation enplanements use TSA daily checkpoint screening data as lead indicator, targeting monthly T-100 market data (3-4 month publishing lag).
- Amtrak ridership uses station-level annual figures as lead indicator, targeting system-wide annual ridership.
- TransBorder Freight uses the Census Bureau FT900 report as lead indicator, targeting US-Canada and US-Mexico freight flow statistics (2-month processing lag).
- Transit ridership uses FTA National Transit Database unlinked passenger trips as lead indicator, covering bus, ferry, and rail modes.
- Vehicle Miles Traveled was developed jointly by BTS and FHWA, integrating high-frequency traffic counts from roughly 5,000 continuous monitoring stations with macro-indicators.
Sources and time
- Primary source
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics
- Other sources
- 0
- First source publication
- 18 Sept 2026, 08:00
- Page published
- 19 Sept 2026, 22:02
- Last updated
- 18 Sept 2026, 08:00
- Original links
- US BTS Statistical Releases：Preliminary Estimates Model Expands its Portfolio | Bureau of Transportation StatisticsLockU.S. Department of TransportationUnited States Department of Transportation(link is external)(link is external)(link is external)(link is external)(link is external)(link sends email)(link is external)(link is external) (opens in a new tab)Primary source · en · Published 18 Sept 2026, 08:00