How Is High-Speed Rail Reshaping China's Domestic Aviation Market?

Comparing OAG flight schedule data from August 2016 and August 2026, China's domestic aviation capacity grew 65% over ten years, with routes above 800 kilometers growing 91% and routes below 800 kilometers declining 7%. China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines reduced seat capacity on routes below 800 kilometers by 815,800 and 797,100 seats respectively, declines of 31% and 37%, while China Express Airlines and Chengdu Airlines grew 178% and 184% respectively. The share of short-haul seats for the 10 largest airlines all declined by 7 to 18 percentage points, with capacity focus shifting to medium- and long-haul routes where high-speed rail's time advantage weakens.