Hotel recovery isn't waiting on rate cuts

In an opinion piece, AWH Partners co-founder Russ Flicker argues the 2026 first-half hotel recovery was driven by demand rather than monetary policy. CoStar and Tourism Economics upgraded their full-year 2026 U.S. RevPAR growth forecast to 2.8% after national RevPAR rose 4% year over year in the first four months and the first quarter set a record, while the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in the first half. The article distinguishes operating from transaction fundamentals: stabilized asset cap rates are around 8.0% to 8.5% and upscale/upper-midscale near 9.5%, both multiyear highs, and nearly 70% of the $18.7 billion in hotel CMBS loans maturing in 2026 carry floating rates.